The Ripple Effects of Trump’s Tariffs on Canadian Exports

Tariffs imposed on Canadian exports such as steel, aluminum, lumber, and other goods have far-reaching consequences on everyday life in Canada, particularly in Ontario, a major hub for manufacturing, trade, and real estate. While one might expect domestic prices to drop due to an oversupply when exports decline, in reality, several economic forces work together to drive prices higher. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of how these tariffs can affect various sectors and regions:

1. Higher Prices for Consumer Goods

• Mechanism:

  • Tariffs increase the cost of imported raw materials and finished goods.
  • Producers pass on these higher costs to consumers.

• Impacts:

  • Everyday Items: Appliances, vehicles, and construction materials become more expensive.
  • Groceries: Increased costs for packaging and transportation may lead to higher grocery prices.
  • Housing Costs: Renovations and new construction become costlier due to pricier lumber and steel.

2. Job Market and Employment

• Mechanism:

  • Ontario’s manufacturing sectors, especially automotive and steel, are closely tied to the U.S. market.
  • Tariffs disrupt supply chains and reduce export demand.

• Impacts:

  • Employment: Potential job losses or reduced working hours in manufacturing and export-driven industries.
  • Wages: Slower wage growth as companies face squeezed profit margins.
  • Regional Impact: Areas like Windsor and Oshawa, home to automotive plants, may be particularly vulnerable.

3. Housing Market

• Mechanism:

  • Tariffs on lumber and steel drive up construction costs.

• Impacts:

  • New Homes & Renovations: Higher costs make housing less affordable.
  • Rent: Landlords may pass on increased maintenance and repair costs through higher rents.
  • Supply: Reduced profitability can slow the growth of new housing developments.

4. Overall Cost of Living

• Mechanism:

  • Increased production costs due to tariffs contribute to inflation across the economy.

• Impacts:

  • Household Budgets: Higher prices for everyday expenses like groceries, gas, and utilities.
  • Disposable Income: Less money available for leisure activities, dining out, or travel.
  • Economic Stress: Particularly affects low- and middle-income families.

5. Business Environment

• Mechanism:

  • Cross-border trade uncertainty makes it challenging for businesses to plan and invest.

• Impacts:

  • SMEs: Small and medium-sized enterprises may struggle with higher costs.
  • Investment: Reduced investment in Ontario as operational expenses rise.
  • Closures: Businesses unable to adapt may be forced to close.

6. Real Estate Investment

• Mechanism:

  • A weaker Canadian dollar (CAD), a potential consequence of trade tensions, can alter investment dynamics.

• Impacts:

  • Luxury Market: Increased foreign investment in high-end properties, driving up prices.
  • Market Competition: More competition for first-time homebuyers as investors enter the market.
  • Market Segmentation: The real estate market may evolve into a two-tiered system, with luxury properties outperforming mid-range homes.

7. Government Response

• Mechanism:

  • In response to economic pressures, the government may introduce counteractive measures.

• Impacts:

  • Subsidies & Support: Increased spending to support affected industries.
  • Stimulus Measures: Potential tax cuts or stimulus packages to boost consumer spending.
  • Trade Diversification: Efforts to build stronger ties with Europe, Asia, or other markets may open up new opportunities.

8. Psychological and Social Effects

• Mechanism:

  • Economic uncertainty and rising costs have broader social implications.

• Impacts:

  • Mental Health: Increased stress and anxiety, especially among workers in vulnerable industries.
  • Consumer Behavior: Shifts in spending habits, with reduced expenditure on non-essential items.
  • Community Dynamics: Social tensions may arise as communities adjust to the economic changes.

Regional Impact on Ontario

• Toronto:

  • As Canada’s largest city and economic hub, Toronto will experience higher living costs, reduced consumer spending, and a more competitive real estate market.

• Windsor and Oshawa:

  • Cities with a strong reliance on automotive manufacturing may face significant job losses and economic slowdowns.

• Northern Ontario:

  • Communities dependent on industries like forestry and mining could see reduced economic activity due to lower export volumes.

Why Prices Don’t Drop Despite a Domestic Oversupply

At first glance, one might assume that tariffs on exports would result in a surplus of goods like steel and lumber in Canada, potentially lowering domestic prices. However, several factors counteract this:

1. High Production Costs: Producers must cover fixed and variable costs, even with increased domestic supply.
2. Reduced Economies of Scale: Lower production volumes lead to higher per-unit costs.
3. Export Diversion: Selling to alternative markets (Europe, Asia) often incurs higher transportation and logistical expenses.
4. Currency Depreciation: A weaker CAD raises the cost of imported inputs, increasing overall production costs.
5. Market Power: With fewer competitors, surviving producers can maintain or increase prices.
6. Speculative Behavior: Anticipation of further price increases can lead to stockpiling, artificially driving prices higher.

A Real-World Example: Lumber Tariffs

In 2017, when the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, several outcomes were observed:

• Production Adjustments: Canadian producers reduced output to avoid an oversupplied market.
• Transportation Costs: Diversifying exports to other markets increased overall costs.
• Domestic Demand: A surge in domestic construction projects further pushed up lumber prices.

Long-Term Outlook and Individual Actions

Long-Term Economic Adjustments

• Diversification: Ontario may accelerate efforts to diversify its economy and expand trade partnerships beyond the U.S.
• Innovation: Businesses might invest in automation and technology to mitigate higher costs.
• Policy Support: Government policies, such as tax relief or affordable housing initiatives, could help cushion the impact.

What Can Individuals Do?

• Budget Wisely: Prepare for higher costs by reducing discretionary spending and increasing savings.
• Invest in Skills: Upskill or retrain to stay competitive in an evolving job market.
• Stay Informed: Keep an eye on economic developments and government support programs.

Conclusion

Trump’s tariffs on Canadian exports create a complex web of economic challenges. Rather than lowering prices through a domestic oversupply, tariffs increase costs across the board from consumer goods to housing and business operations leading to higher inflation and economic uncertainty. While these changes present significant challenges for Ontario’s workforce and industries, proactive measures by individuals, businesses, and the government can help mitigate the long-term effects.

By understanding these mechanisms and their impacts, stakeholders can better prepare for the changes ahead and work together to build a more resilient economic future.

I set out to write an article on the contradictions and complexities of dual agency (sometimes referred to as double ending a deal) in real estate but in reviewing the different court cases and literature, I soon had so many thoughts on paper that I decided to make it a series.
I’ll start by throwing out a few ideas for consideration and in the next few articles I will dive deeper into each idea one by one.

“If two consenting adults choose to attempt a transaction through one agent…I argue they should bear more responsibility in the outcome.”

Firstly, in researching this, one thing that stood out in all the literature was the singular focus on the actions and responsibilities of the real estate agent with only fleeting enquiries into the behaviour of the parties, both consenting adults. 

As well, I see what appears to be a flaw in the way the law treats dual agency in real estate. There is a major difference between legal disputes and real estate transactions in that when two parties contact lawyers, there is already a dispute between the parties and the lawyers are engaged under the accepted premises of an adversarial process. 

In a real estate transaction, the two parties are generally aiming to conclude a mutually satisfactory transaction (though often each is hoping to come out a little better than the other party). It is usually only after or at the end of the transaction that the situation tends to become adversarial, yet the entire process is legally treated as adversarial from the beginning. If two consenting adults choose to attempt a transaction through one agent, they are doing so in the hopes of gaining some benefit and as long as that consent was given with full and timely disclosure, I argue they should bear more responsibility in the outcome.

This human tendency that aggravates dual agency is, to me, best described in the joke about two horse traders. A fellow comes upon two horse traders arguing. He asks what is wrong and they both say that the other guy ripped them off in a trade of horses. He asks them why they didn’t just trade back then and forget about it. Both reply that they don’t want to get ripped off again. Doesn’t that sum it up so well?

“The added risks involved, in my opinion, more than justify the full commission being paid to the one agent, yet both parties often expect a reduction.”

Oftentimes, one of the parties, usually the buyer, will request their agent to contact the other party on their behalf in the hopes of effecting the transaction without a second Realtor and expecting you, the agent, to work in their best interests against the other party. There are a few reasons for this, however, the hope that they (the buyer) will come out ahead is not the least of them, and this puts the real estate agent in a very unenviable position. Sometimes, if you don’t do it, the buyer will find someone who will. Additionally, the added risks involved, in my opinion, more than justify the full commission being paid to the one agent, yet both parties often expect a reduction.

Given that both parties are often looking for “a deal,” this puts the agent immediately in a seemingly irreconcilable conflict of interest. Usually, the more sophisticated client is the one initiating the process and their hope of garnering a “deal” diminishes the more the agent provides market information to the other party. So, the more work an agent does, the less the chance of a deal, and the greater chance of not getting paid for doing more (and better!) work. The less work an agent does, the greater the risk of legal liability and sanctions.

“Finally, under fiduciary duty, we are expected to place our interests beneath those of our clients.”

At this point, I should add that there is nothing illegal or unethical about seeking a “deal.” This is part of human nature, and there is nothing inherently wrong with it. I say this because this conflict is compounded by the fact that the initiating party is often an active investor, the kind of client an agent needs to thrive. The fact that we are in fiduciary relationships per se (fancy legal way of saying by default), precludes agents from favouring the better client in effecting a deal. 

Finally, under fiduciary duty, we are expected to place our interests beneath those of our clients. I find this a curious statement. I have also seen this worded as we are to place our clients’ interests as paramount. This I have no issue with, but the first statement I do because, as worded, it implies we must diminish our interests. 

This begs the question, how far? I expect a) to be remunerated for my efforts, and b) that that remuneration is fair—and I am not prepared to reduce these expectations. Everyone expects this when they go to work in the morning, but am I to diminish these interests? Why? And how much so? 

Stay tuned for more on these thoughts as we do deep dives into each one individually as we explore the wonderful world of dual agency.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has lowered its key interest rate to 3%, marking a significant shift in the country’s economic landscape. If you’re a homeowner, renter, investor, or just someone concerned about the economy, this decision will have ripple effects on your finances.

So, what does this mean for your mortgage, savings, loans, and everyday expenses? Let’s break it down in simple terms.

1. Lower Mortgage Rates – Good News for Homebuyers

If you’ve been waiting to buy a home, this rate cut could be a golden opportunity.

How does it help?

• Lower borrowing costs: Banks and lenders typically lower their mortgage rates when the Bank of Canada cuts its rate, making homeownership more affordable.
• Increased buying power: With lower interest rates, you may qualify for a larger mortgage, meaning you could afford a better home or get a lower monthly payment.
• Refinancing opportunity: If you already have a mortgage, you might want to check if refinancing at a lower rate could save you money on your monthly payments.

 Tip: If you’re thinking of buying a home, now might be a good time to talk to a mortgage broker and explore your options.

2. Lower Interest on Loans – Car Loans, Credit Cards & Personal Loans

Interest rates don’t just affect mortgages – they also impact:

• Car loans
• Credit cards (some variable-rate ones)
• Personal loans and lines of credit

If you’re planning to finance a car, renovate your home, or consolidate debt, borrowing could become more affordable in the coming months.

 Tip: If you have a variable-rate loan, you might see lower monthly payments soon. If you have a fixed-rate loan, your rate won’t change, but refinancing could be an option.

3. Savings Accounts & Investments – Expect Lower Returns

While lower interest rates help borrowers, they hurt savers. If you have money in a high-interest savings account or GIC, you may see lower returns in the near future.

• Savings accounts will offer lower interest rates, meaning your money won’t grow as quickly.
• GICs (Guaranteed Investment Certificates) may also have lower fixed rates.
• Bonds & Fixed-Income Investments could become less attractive, leading investors to look for other options.

 Tip: If you rely on interest income, now might be a good time to diversify your investments or consider other wealth-building strategies.

4. Renters – Could This Impact You?

If you rent a home, you might not feel the effects immediately, but here’s what could happen:

• Lower mortgage rates could encourage more people to buy homes, reducing rental demand in some areas.
• On the flip side, some landlords with variable-rate mortgages might see lower costs, making it easier for them to keep rent prices stable.
• If the market heats up and home prices start rising again, landlords might use this as an excuse to increase rent in certain regions.

 Tip: If you’re renting and considering buying, this could be a good time to start exploring your options before prices go up.

5. The Bigger Picture – What It Means for Canada’s Economy

The Bank of Canada cuts interest rates to stimulate economic growth. Lower rates encourage borrowing, spending, and investing, which helps:
✔ Businesses invest and expand
✔ Consumers spend more money
✔ The job market stay strong

However, the downside is that too much borrowing could lead to more inflation. The Bank of Canada will monitor the economy carefully to ensure that inflation doesn’t spiral out of control again.

What Should You Do Now?

✅ If you’re looking to buy a home – Consider getting pre-approved for a mortgage to take advantage of lower rates.
✅ If you have debt – Check if refinancing or consolidating your loans could save you money.
✅ If you have savings – Look for better investment options as savings account interest rates decline.
✅ If you rent – Keep an eye on the market and explore whether buying makes sense for you.

This rate cut could be the start of more changes to come in 2025. Staying informed and making smart financial moves now can help you take advantage of these shifts.

 What do you think about the Bank of Canada’s decision? Are you planning to buy a home or refinance? Let us know in the comments!

As 2025 begins, there is greater optimism around the Canadian real estate market, as many experts forecast a rebound driven by lower borrowing costs, pent-up demand, and a more stable economic environment. The projections vary across sources, but most agree on a renewed upward trend in sales and home prices.

Key Drivers of the 2025 Real Estate Outlook

Lower interest rates are the linchpin of the anticipated recovery. BNN Bloomberg reports that the Bank of Canada’s easing monetary policy has already begun to stimulate the market. Phil Soper, president of Royal LePage, points to the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cuts and their expected stabilization in the latter half of 2025 as pivotal. Soper notes, “When the Bank of Canada reaches neutral rates—neither slowing nor stimulating the economy—investor confidence is likely to surge.”

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) also highlights a combination of factors expected to drive activity, including reduced borrowing costs, pent-up demand, and the traditional surge in spring listings. 

General Optimism for Canadian Real Estate Market Improvements

The CREA forecasts an 8.6% increase in home sales through MLS® Systems in 2025, up from their prior estimate of 6.6%. The national average home price is predicted to rise by 4.7% to $722,221. TD Economics offers a more dramatic forecast, projecting a 15.8% increase in home sales and an 8% rise in average prices. Their analysis credits steady economic growth and the gradual reduction in interest rates. 

Regional Predictions

The CREA predicts recovery to differ across regions. It forecasts that British Columbia and Ontario, with their substantial inventories, will see stronger sales rebounds. In contrast, Alberta and Saskatchewan, with tight supply and relatively affordable prices, are poised for significant price gains. Atlantic Canada and Quebec are expected to experience balanced increases in both sales and prices.

Royal LePage forecasts aggregate home price growth of 6% nationwide, with the highest gains projected in Quebec City (11%), followed by Edmonton and Regina (9%). The Greater Montreal Area, Toronto, and Vancouver are expected to see more moderate increases of 6.5%, 5%, and 4%, respectively.

ReMax anticipates sales growth in 33 of 37 regions, with some areas potentially experiencing sales increases of up to 25%. They also predict a 5% rise in the national average home price, closely mirroring Royal LePage’s outlook.

Cautions

On the other hand, a Reuters poll presents a more cautious perspective, predicting a modest 2.8% rise in prices due to ongoing affordability challenges.  

Affordability remains a critical concern despite optimistic forecasts. Reuters analysts warn that high prices could continue to deter many potential buyers, particularly in markets like Toronto and Vancouver. The CREA also notes potential economic risks tied to evolving trade relations with the United States.

Despite any challenges, many experts seem to agree that 2025 will mark a turning point, with first-time buyers, smaller investors, and institutional players re-entering the market. With new policies and continued population growth driving demand, the Canadian real estate market appears well-positioned for a recovery.

Investor Sentiment and Long-Term Outlook

The enduring appeal of Canadian real estate as a reliable investment is a key factor noted in predictions. Soper emphasizes the historical resilience of home prices, which have shown steady appreciation over time. Improved lending policies, such as expanded eligibility for 30-year amortizations and the removal of stress test requirements for mortgage renewals, are also expected to bolster buyer activity. 

Regardless of predictions, many experts recommend investors remember to take a long-term perspective, rather than trying to time the market.

The Canadian real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a certain amount of optimism. While there is consensus on factors impacting recovery, such as lower interest rates and pent-up demand, predictions vary regarding the extent of price and sales growth. Regional variations, affordability challenges, and potential economic risks will shape the market. However, many foresee a more promising year in Canadian real estate.

More Ontario Realtors now have access to more data as the PropTx MLS database expands to include listings from most boards in the province. 

PropTx, a wholly-owned and for-profit subsidiary of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), promises members access to a centralized MLS, a long-standing priority among Realtors, according to TRREB CEO John DiMichele. 

“This has been a strategic focus, and through the creation of PropTx, was a key mandate for the organization,” says DiMichele. “The participating boards and associations were essential collaborators, recognizing that working together benefits all Realtors. A unified MLS database ensures consistency and continuity as it matures.”

Participating boards and associations currently have access to the PropTx MLS system, with the final stages of data transition underway. DiMichele explains several enhancements are expected in the first quarter of 2025, including expanded mandatory fields and the integration of pre-populated external data sets. These updates are based on feedback from participating boards and new users of the platform.

Participating boards and associations

The following boards and associations are part of the PropTx MLS collaboration:

• Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (including the former Brampton Real Estate Board)

• Central Lakes Association of Realtors (including Durham, Quinte, Northumberland, Peterborough, and Kawartha Lakes)

• London and St. Thomas Association of Realtors

• Niagara Association of Realtors (NAR)

• Kingston & Area Real Estate Association (KAREA)

• Timmins, Cochrane & Timiskaming District Association of Realtors

• Ottawa Real Estate Board

• Cornwall & District Real Estate Board

• Renfrew County Real Estate Board

• Rideau-St Lawrence Real Estate Board

• Oakville, Milton & District Real Estate Board (OMDREB)

• One Point Association of Realtors (formerly Lakelands, Guelph & District, Huron Perth, and Grey Bruce Owen Sound)

• Woodstock, Ingersoll Tillsonburg & Area Association of Realtors (WITAAR)

• North Bay & Area Realtors Association (NBARA)

DiMichele explains that through PropTx, members of these associations have access to more data than ever before, and that will expand as new features are introduced.

“The move towards a single MLS database creates incredible efficiencies for Realtors, both in the operation of their business as well as in the cost of operating their business,” DiMichele says. “The move towards a single MLS database reduces the need for interboarding MLS listings as well as paying for multiple real estate board and association memberships.”

TRREB’s CEO calls PropTx a for-Realtors-by-Realtors solution, “The long-term strategic goal of PropTx is to continue to offer a range of best-in-class tools, insights, and applications to improve the transaction experience for realtors and the clients they serve efficiently and effectively.”

Impact on ITSO

More boards transitioning to PropTx marks a shift for the Information Technology Systems of Ontario (ITSO), a not-for-profit corporation established in 2020 with the primary goal of creating a unified MLS.

Geoff Halford, ITSO chair, says the organization was initially created to increase access to MLS data through the operation of a regional MLS System when associations were not ready to amalgamate but wanted to share data. Halford says this purpose may no longer be relevant.

Member boards such as KAREA, NAR, OMDREB, NBARA, WITAAR, and OnePoint are leaving or have left ITSO in favour of PropTx.

Halford acknowledges the evolving landscape and its potential impact. “We are proud of the success we had creating a regional system that at its peak brought together 23 real estate associations and more than 24,000 users who had access to data from 29 of the real estate associations in the province, but we also understand that the landscape is quickly changing,” he said, adding  ITSO remains committed to supporting its current member associations, ensuring that the system continues to meet their needs.

“We are disappointed that a solution could not be arranged with TRREB that would have fostered competition in the MLS services market…” Geoff Halford, ITSO chair

ITSO will operate its MLS system for its remaining three member boards, the Barrie & District Association of Realtors (BDAR), Brantford Regional Real Estate Association (BRREA), and Cornerstone Association of Realtors, for the next two years under the current MLS Services Agreement.

“We will be reviewing what is in the best interests of our members and the future of ITSO over the course of the next two years,” says Halford.”There are other MLS Systems in Ontario and in other provinces that operate with far fewer users than ITSO, so we know such a system is viable, but we also understand the political pressure that our remaining members face to solve the problem of fragmented data access.

“We are disappointed that a solution could not be arranged with TRREB that would have fostered competition in the MLS services market and enabled all realtors in the province to access all the MLS data they need in the system of their choice.” 

Halford adds, “It is especially disheartening to see Realtors who formerly used the ITSO system complain on social media about the quality and quantity of listing content they now have access to in their new MLS System, as ITSO and its members prided themselves on building a comprehensive database of detailed and accurate MLS listing content.”

Industry perspectives

Paul Czan, president of the Ottawa Real Estate Board, says the board moved from ITSO  to PropTx last fall.

Czan explains, “This new platform promises a much better experience with more data readily available. Faster communication and smoother transactions, in a sense. Another thing is we’re able to have input on the system.”

OREB’s president has high hopes for PropTx’s impact.  “I think it’s going to be a platform that’s going to bring stability and consistency amongst a bit of a shifting landscape in our industry, meaning that Realtors can be assured that they can have access to the same quality data as their counterparts in all the other regions.”

The housing industry knows this story all too well: prices are soaring and demand (until recently) has been relentless yet projects are stalling. The blame often falls on high land values or developer greed, but the real culprit is clear to anyone in the sector—it’s the staggering cost of delivering new homes.

The numbers are sobering. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says that we need to build 5.8 million new homes by 2030 to restore affordability to 2004 levels. If successful, that would mean that a newly built 1,000-square-foot, two-bedroom condo in downtown Vancouver would sell for $620,000 instead of the $1.5-million that it currently does. 

But here’s the reality: even if land were free and developers waived their profits, that condo would still cost more than $1-million to build. In Toronto, it’s a similar story, with hard costs alone pushing the price beyond $800,000.

By the numbers

Here’s how the numbers break down for that $1.5-million Vancouver condo:

• $294,000 (20 per cent) is for land acquisition

• $490,000 (32 per cent) is for hard costs (i.e. labour, building materials)

• $102,000 (7 per cent) is for soft costs (i.e. architectural designs, legal fees)

• $92,000 (6 per cent) is for marketing and realtor commissions

• $77,000 (5 per cent) is for finance charges and loan interest

• $267,000 (18 per cent) is for government taxes and fees

• $178,000 (12 per cent) is the profit margin required by banks to provide financing

(Numbers rounded for clarity)

Climbing costs lead to stalled projects

This isn’t news to anyone in the industry. What’s alarming is how quickly these costs are climbing, forcing projects to stall or fail altogether. In Vancouver and Surrey, B.C. alone, 58,000 homes are paused because the cost of delivering them exceeds what buyers can pay.

So, if the affordability crisis is really a cost-of-delivery crisis, what can be done? While macroeconomic factors like interest rates and global material costs are beyond our control, governments hold significant levers to reduce costs and unlock stalled projects.

Three areas of reform stand out:  

1. Reduce financing costs for housing projects

• Allow development cost charges (DCCs) and municipal levies to be paid at the end of a project, rather than upfront. This would reduce financing costs and free up critical capital.

• Exempt DCCs from GST/PST/HST and land transfer tax calculations—double taxation only inflates prices unnecessarily.

• Expand municipal surety bond programs to replace capital-intensive letters of credit, unlocking billions in tied-up equity.

2. Provide stability for developers 

• End the constant churn of new regulations. Introduce in-stream protections so projects already in process aren’t derailed by sudden policy changes or fee hikes.

• Expand the pre-sale period in British Columbia—currently, developers have only 12 months to meet pre-sale requirements for projects to move ahead, resulting in many projects not launching, or failing to meet requirements. This holds housing projects back that would otherwise be able to move forward 

• Establish a nationwide policy moratorium to provide the sector with a stable planning environment for the next five to 10 years.

3. Implement fairer ways to fund infrastructure and amenities

• Create a municipal services corporation for water and wastewater services so that regional districts can borrow and amortize infrastructure costs over time instead of relying solely on development cost charges.

While these changes require government leadership, the industry has a role to play. Developers need to speak with a unified voice, push for sensible reforms, and share the data that demonstrates the urgent need for change. Transparent conversations about what it actually takes to bring homes to market will help shift public perception and rebuild trust in the sector.

CMHC’s affordability target isn’t impossible—but it demands bold action. The time for incremental adjustments is over. If we want affordability to return to Canadian housing markets, we need governments and industry to tackle the true crisis: the soaring cost of delivering homes.

The most recent employment statistics from Stats Canada showed overall growth in December 2024, with most industry sectors and provinces experiencing job growth. 

Employment Growth Overall

Canada saw an increase of 91,000 jobs in December 2024, marking a rise in full-time employment that boosted the overall employment rate to 60.8%. 

Employment Growth by Sector

The biggest gains were seen in educational services, which increased by 1.1%, and transportation and warehousing, with a notable 1.6% increase in this sector.

Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing saw a 1.1% increase; the accommodation and food services and construction sectors also saw growth.

Source: Stats Canada

Regional Breakdown

Canada’s provinces showed varying patterns in job growth and unemployment. 

Alberta

The province recorded a 1.4% employment increase in December and an impressive 4.0% year-over-year growth. Despite unemployment still sitting at 6.7%, Alberta’s employment figures point to a potentially growing labour market.

Ontario

Employment growth was more modest in Ontario, with a 0.3% monthly increase, resulting in 2.6% annual growth. Despite the modest growth in job numbers, the unemployment rate remained steady at 7.5%. 

British Columbia

The province saw a 0.5% employment increase in December; however, the unemployment rate also rose to 6.0%. 

Other Provincial Employment Growth

Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan showed positive trends in employment, with 1.4% and 0.7% increases, respectively. 

Wage Growth

Average hourly wages rose by 3.8% year-over-year in December 2024, reaching $35.77. While this shows an increase, it also reflects a deceleration compared to increases (not seasonally adjusted) of 4.1% in November and 4.9% in October. The December wage growth was the slowest since May 2022, after a peak of 5.8% in November 2022. Growth remained around 5% throughout 2023 and into the first 10 months of 2024.

Impact of Export-Driven Employment

Employment in industries dependent on U.S. demand accounted for 8.8% of total employment in Canada in 2024, totalling about 1.8 million jobs. 

Industries with the highest proportion of employment dependent on US demand included: 

• Oil and gas extraction (74.3%)
• Pipeline transportation (71.7%)
• Primary metal manufacturing (60.8%)
• Transportation equipment manufacturing (56.0%).

Wages in US-demand-linked sectors were above average, with workers earning $37.24 per hour.

The Stats Canada employment data for December 2024 showed notable trends. Alberta led in employment growth, but other provinces showed positive signs as well. Wage growth may have slowed, but did continue. The specific industries showing growth can also be of interest. Overall, Canada’s employment landscape reflects a diverse array of sectoral and regional growth, but with some potential for optimism.